The Iowa Caucuses are held today, with results to be published tomorrow or so. Expectations are that Trump will win handily and that DeSantis and Haley will be distant seconds & thirds. Most polls expect the November election will be Trump vs Biden, and most polls indicate that most voters would prefer that candidates other than Trump and Biden.
But there is a case to be made that this matchup is needed. I can't imagine Trump winning. He lost by millions of votes and a significant margin in the electoral college. There is a growing vanguard of conservatives who are dead set against Trump. He will be convicted in one or more cases against him. His behavior is increasingly erratic, and only the MAGA base believes Biden is directing his prosecution. His financial empire in New York is being dismantled, and there is little he can do about it. Coupled with his history of failed ventures, it will be difficult for anyone other than the MAGA faithful to deny his long streak of losing.
Strategists will say negative ads work, and Democrats have much more material to use. Much negative advertising will come out of the mouths of committed Republicans, including candidates running against him in the primaries. If the documents case results in conviction, there will be some Republicans who will consider Trump unacceptable as a security risk. There will be a major faction of voters for whom the abortion issue is the main factor for voting against Trump. Negative ads should help persuade Latinos and Blacks to either support Biden or at least not support Trump. The same should hold, even for Muslims, despite Biden's strong support for Israel.
Voters convinced that Democrats are evil no matter what are not to be persuaded. But if Biden wins reelection and Democrats win the House, the Senate, or both, there will be a reckoning about Trump's leadership.
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