Midterm Election 2018

I feel like Charlie Brown in his quest to kick the football teed by Lucy.  Forever she will snatch the ball away as I run to kick it.

The elections that I felt should be an emphatic repudiation of Trump instead are a mild rebuke.  It should have been no surprise.  Our nation's heinous and racist past is a better predictor of the future than is our idealistically worded Declaration of Independence and Constitution.  Behavior always dominates words, so it should have been a foregone conclusion that country's path would continue to disappoint.

Being as I am in the privileged 1%, I personally 'benefit' from the result.  Why complain, then?  It is because I believe in the myth of the country about liberty and justice for all.  I need to detach and allow that just as I vote against my self interest, so do the majority of the population.  Insofar as this trend will not affect me personally, why should I care?

Science for Improving Society

Science is a term connoting the study of the physical and natural world.  Scientists use experiment and observation to test hypotheses and to advance understanding.  Engineering and technology use science to build and invent.

I have long believed that the present ills of the world are not based in a deficiency in the application of science.  To be sure, many ills are being addressed by science.  Insofar as one of our current global crises, climate change, has been accelerated by man-made innovation (harvesting and burning fossil fuel), it is argued that science causes many ills.  The list may include all of the innovations of war that kill more efficiently or even have potential to wipe out civilization (think nuclear war).

Other than unintended consequences of science and technology, we think of ethics, religion, and other realms not associated with science as domains for governing interpersonal relationships.  These arenas seem important in determining all domains of human activity, including the choices for applying science and technology.  It is in this sense that I have agreed with others on the need for attention to domains outside of science.

But now I want to advocate for the importance of science in these areas as well.  This is not about applying scientific methods to social ills, as in the fields of psychology, political science, and sociology.  This is about the importance of science as a way of thinking.

When we separate science and confine it to the study of the physical and natural world, we demean the fundamental thought that precedes the science.  That is, science demands a disinterested and unfailingly logical approach to observation.  If more of our activities were more rooted in this disciplined approach, we would become accustomed to questioning causes of ills.  We could become more inventive in our politics and become more aware of beneficial and harmful policies.

Perhaps this idea harkens to one of my favorite quotes from Alexander Hamilton Federalist No. 15.

Why has government been instituted at all? Because the passions of men will not conform to the dictates of reason and justice, without constraint.

The implication is that government is the dispassionate opposition to unreasonable and unjust passion.  When collective action is needed, policy agreed on all sides is a mandate.  When action is in dispute, a compromise can result.  Or else, no action is taken.  This is the logic of limited government.

Returning to this idea about science and government, our collective state can be seen as a living organism, in a continual state of adaptation.  Insofar as dynamics entail social interactions among its members, including unpredictable human passions, scientific method will not produce the kind of truths or knowledge that are obtained in the physical world.  Still, the method is useful in keeping collective action attentive to reason and justice.

In a related essay, I will posit that the primary political consideration before all debates in government is defining the sphere of government.  We collectively perceive injustices, disparities, and inefficiencies, and the fundamental everlasting debate must always be, which of these are the domain of collective (government) action?  When all agree there is a problem, there is a bias in our society that the most efficient path to an answer is private enterprise.  That is, a recognized problem can be assigned a certain value, and that value can be addressed with a commercial answer without the need of government, or in some cases, with a modest government subsidy.  If the problem is not thus solved, it qualifies as one in need of a government solution.  These are to be minimized for many reasons.  First, it is a slow mechanism, and the problem will fester and grow while awaiting the government response.  Second, it is expensive to establish a government agency to address problems. Third, government agencies are susceptible to perpetuation.  Once the problem is addressed, the purpose of the agency should disappear.  If we are attentive to the primary political consideration, government agencies could be dismantled as well as created.

 

Giving Up on Trump Supporters

Having endured the 500+ days of the Trump administration, I am part of a large proportion of voters who wish to see the Midterm elections repudiate him and his agenda.  I would be less invested in this wish if the majority party in Congress was less passive.  But the Republican leadership has shown nothing but deference to Trump.  I assume there are some among them who value the rule of law and who are alarmed at Trump's abuse of power.  But as a group, they have enabled him with their silence.  They are quite in league with him on some fundamental issues that I believe are detrimental to the nation's welfare, but my largest concern is with the way Republicans seem to have abandoned their duty to check the power of the Executive branch and a duty to govern in consultation with the minority party.

I want elected officials to address Trump's use of our government to enrich himself.  I want elected officials to reverse a slate of regressive actions resulting from Trump's election, including reversals of healthcare reform, exits from the Iran-nuclear weapons agreement and the Paris climate accord, and welfare for corporations in the tax reform.  I want elected officials to grant a path to citizenship for the "Dreamers" who are US citizens already in all ways except name and had no role in their status in the U.S. in the first place.  I want a government that values and respects all of its citizens, irrespective of race, religion, or political affiliation, and a Congress that will vocally oppose opposition to this ideal, especially when coming from the Executive branch.  I must wait until 2020 to vote on leadership in the Executive branch, but the Congress needs to assert its function as a check on the excesses and deficiencies of Donald Trump.

Adults in the Room and Trump

A recent anonymously written Op-ed piece Anonymous’ vs. Trump: Resistance From Within presents a Whitehouse staff trying to save the country from Donald Trump's worst behavior.  I have an experience from my life I offer here as an analogy.

My father was in his early eighties when he had some traffic accidents in a short period of time.  The first occurred in a hospital parking lot when he inexplicably drove his car on to the sidewalk, taking out a bench and damaging is front fender in the process.  His explanation of the incident was that the rubber pad of the brake came off somehow, and his foot slipped to the accelerator.  I inspected the brake pedal and could not believe this story at all.  Soon after, the same type of incident occurred, this time at a facility housing my invalid sister.  In both cases, no one was hurt.  Prior to these 'accidents', my father called to tell me he was lost en route to our house.  It was a route he had taken dozens of times, involving two turns.  Another time when he was a passenger, he insisted we were on the wrong road to Fullerton.  When we persisted and arrived at our destination, he joked, 'They must have moved Fullerton.'  We coached him to consider stopping his driving, but he insisted that he has always been a fine driver.

The time came for his driver's license to be renewed, and thankfully, the occasion required a driver's test.  The DMV tester failed him on multiple tasks.  We were relieved because we were clearly fearful that the next 'accident' could seriously injure or kill someone.  In retrospect, we should have made sure that he could not drive by taking away the keys to the car.

I am confident there are people across the country who have faced a nearly identical situation with respect to someone who needs to have the keys to the car taken from them.  Insofar as the office of the President affects the lives of millions of people every day and the President's has repeatedly demonstrated that his 'driving' is 'off the rails', it is the responsibility of those closest to him to take away his keys.

Working out Medicare

I have my Medicare card and become covered as of November 1.  People who I have told have asked what other insurance I have, and their basic question is, what medical expenses need coverage by other insurance.  Today I try to unpack the answers provided by Medicare on the government's website.

Part A covers hospital expenses with certain limits.

Your costs in Original Medicare

• $1,340 ($1,364 for 2019) 
  deductible
   for each 
  benefit period
   .
• Days 1–60: $0 
  coinsurance
   for each benefit period.
• Days 61–90: $335 ($341 for 2019) coinsurance per day of each benefit period.
• Days 91 and beyond: $670 ($682 for 2019) coinsurance per each "lifetime reserve day" after day 90 for each benefit period (up to 60 days over your lifetime).
• Beyond 
  lifetime reserve days
   : all costs.

Clearly, in any given year, my costs could range from zero to:

$1,364 + ($341 x 30) + ($670 x 60) = $(1364+10230+40200)= $51,794.

However, the above extreme would exhaust my lifetime benefits (I think).  Given that most years will not feature hospital visits, and given that we have savings and home equity that could cover a catastrophic illness, supplemental insurance is not required.  However, it is worth investigating what additional coverage we could get at what cost.  For example, if a $1,200/year premium would cover most of the potential $50k out-of-pocket costs for an extreme year plus the 'beyond lifetime reserve days,' the cost could be rationalized.  Taking this further, in the extreme case over the next 30 years, we would have paid ($1,200 x 30 =) $36,000 to get no benefits if we go into the hospital for less than 60 days.  On the other extreme, we experience two trips (one for each of us) that goes 90 days, for a total of over $100k.

In all of my experience, including people I have known, 90 days in the hospital is extremely rare.  It is almost unknown I would say.  My conclusion it is unwise to insure for costs that exceed 90 days in the hospital simply because the risk of the occurrence is small, and out capacity to cover the most likely of the least likely is still very good.  

Coverage for a more likely (but still, low risk) situation is a stay in a Skilled nursing facility.  Again, one must assess the instances that would exceed 100 days, because up to 20 days is no cost, and for the next 80 days, the cost is $10k.  Again, in my experience, such an occurrence is extremely rare and unlikely to justify the cost of monthly premiums.

Your costs in Original Medicare

You pay: 

• Days 1–20: $0 for each 
  benefit period
   .  
• Days 21–100: $167.50 ($170.50 for 2019) 
  coinsurance
   per day of each benefit period.
• Days 101 and beyond: all costs.

Last but not least is the kind of care my mother had in the last 20 months of her life.  This is a nursing home, and it cost on the order of $4k per month.  It is unclear to me how this was paid.  Was it the private health insurance, Social Security, or a combination?  How it is that I do not know this is an amazing lack of attention.  However, if we can assume no health insurance coverage for the cost, we can use our estimated Social Security payment of around $3,600 as a base for such care.  This leaves a small amount to cover the remaining part, and this would surely come from our home equity plus savings.  

Getting back to the topic, I am becoming comfortable with the idea that getting extra coverage outside of Medicare is unnecessary and unlikely to be of value.  In addition, the major emphasis of advertising for supplemental insurance is for prescription drug coverage, a topic of zero interest to me.  Pursuing insurance to cover incidents outside of what is covered by Medicare is akin to worrying about other exceedingly rare occurrences.  

Is the U.S. more than Capitalism?

Events in the past ten years suggest that there is but one issue on which Americans agree: it is the economy.  The 2008 recession generated consensus and action.  While the action was not universally supported, the need for action was accepted.

Contrast the obsession with fixing the economy with any other topic in American politics and I would assert that there is no consensus and consequently no action.  Meanwhile we have a racist President who cannot even own up to racist statements he makes in front of witnesses.  He lies continually and has a majority party backing him.   Virtually no one in the Republican party defends the racism or the lying.  Why?  The "Economy" is good, and that is all that matters.

"Economy" is a difficult word. In Wikipedia, a reference statement is: 'The economy is defined as a social domain that emphasizes the practices, discourses, and material expressions associated with the production, use, and management of resources'.  

Americans use various indicators to justify their opinion about the economy.  Is the unemployment number low?  Are interest rates low?  Is inflation low?  Then there is the stock market.  In general, Americans accept a judgment that the economy is sound or good if these boxes are checked properly.  Now we are even getting into the next tier of numbers.  Are wages up? Are healthcare insurance premiums 'reasonable' (we are conditioned to expect that they will always increase)?  Are taxes low?

Notice the absence of discussion about related topics, including national debt, social spending, infrastructure repair.  Yes, there is some discussion about income inequality.  In San Diego, the homeless problem is at an all time high, and there has been no progress on it, even though it has been highlighted for many years.  Wild fires, water scarcity, affordable housing, immigration, opioid crisis, education, all are subordinate to 'the Economy.'  The underlying ethos is that we cannot address any problems unless 'the Economy' is sound.  But this ethos runs deeper.  It is the belief that when the economy is sound, all problems will be solved.  The 'invisible hand' of capitalism will solve problems through market mechanisms, through supply and demand.

We have likely always been this way, and I am only now acknowledging this reality.  Each culture brings its own beliefs into practice.  Our culture is that the all-mighty dollar will fix all things.  More abstractly, the free market will fix all things.  

A case can be made that there is no general approach for all problems.  Certainly the scale of a problem is related to the scale of the solution that is needed.  

Leadership and Succession Planning in Politics

Trump's disastrous presidency elicits yelps from the electorate about how such a debacle could have occurred.  The excuses are numerous: the flawed opponent, Russian interference, fake news, social media targeting both voter encouragement and voter suppression.  How about blaming Obama's leadership?

What, you say?  President Obama was a great President and leader.  He had a remarkable eight years without scandal, with high economic growth, withdrawal from two wars, the Paris Climate Accord, a TransPacific Trade agreement, DACA and healthcare reform.  Even the size of the deficit was shrinking.

Yes, I agree with these achievements.  But Trump's election put the whole legacy at high risk, including some that were not previously at risk.  Immediately, the Supreme Court changed, with other appointments a heartbeat away with the aging other justices.  All of the Executive branch is in complete reversal.  And I blame Obama.

You see, a forgotten feature of leadership is succession planning.  It is an activity that was part of my management training back in the early eighties, but it seems to have gone the way of the dodo.  Leadership development is seen as an essential function to the long term health of the organization.

In US history, the first succession planning occurred without any codification, but it worked out well. The Secretary of State would likely be the individual best known to foreign nations, so when President Jefferson declined a third term, Secretary Madison succeeded.   Likewise, Secretary Monroe, and Secretary John Quincy Adams.  Perhaps the electoral college understood the importance of foreign nations understanding and accepting the fledgling US government in this habit.  Andrew Jackson's ascendency broke that tradition, perhaps signaling the electorate's sense that internal expansion and conflict was a more relevant priority, therefore creating the desire for a strong military leader.  But this is a side discussion for the present.

US politics is replete with aging fossils prioritizing their own aggrandizement over the long term success of the Republic.  California has Nancy Pelosi and Dianne Feinstein who have been excellent leaders in their time.  But it is clear that succession planning is not part of their leadership agenda, and where will that leave their legacy?  In the case of Obama, he hired Hilary Clinton for Secretary of State, harkening back to the early days of the Republic.  But he should have sensed that foreign affairs was not the arena most at risk.

Looking at the rest of Obama's cabinet, except for John Kerry, who had already lost a bid for Presidency, there is no obvious successor, though I wonder why Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke would not have been a good choice to groom for succession.  Perhaps it was the feeling of entitlement that Hilary should be the successor that prevented effective mentoring.  But a good organization looks to recruit new people and groom them for all levels of leadership.

As the dismemberment of Obama's legacy continues, we may again learn the value of recruiting, mentoring, and planning for succession.

Easter Meditation 2018

Today's celebration of the Christian faith has sparked an insight for me about how to reconcile this country's sad state with its supposed Christian heritage.  The insight is the focus on personal salvation.  The individual is the main attribute of the United States in its foundation and in every dimension of government.  The rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness is a profoundly inward looking motivation.  Most Americans would accept the ideal of a society in which each person could pursue their passion and their own path, so long as the pursuit does not interfere with another's same rights.

My personal understanding about the Christian faith is that each individual is doomed unless the individual 'accepts Jesus as their personal savior,' and I believe many Christians would agree with some version of this assertion (whatever the interpretation of  'accepting Jesus').  The divergences begin as to the consequences of this canonical step, and I am persuaded that the philosophy of each person deciding for themselves is at the heart of the divergence.

The result is there is no consensus among Christians about what is required of them as a member of society.  Even Jesus is quoted as 'Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's,' and "Let every person be in subjection to the governing authorities. For there is no authority except from God and those which exist are established by God."

An interpretation, especially in the context of the focus on the individual, could be that societal injustices and inequalities are matters of government and are of debatable concern to the Christian.  The salvation of the individual soul is all that matters.  Now, Christ also admonished  'Judge not, lest ye be judged.'

But the converted experiences a change.  In the church of my parents, the death of Christ is to be reflected in the death of oneself.  The baptism ritual is the setting aside of one's old sinful self, emerging as a new person possessed of the holy spirit.  So far so good.  Now, how does this new person act?  Love thy neighbor as thyself.   Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.  Love the lord thy God, etc.  There is quite a long list.  Some are quite hard for the American: "Sell all your possessions and give the money to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven. Then come, follow me."  "But I say unto you, Love your enemies, bless them that curse you, do good to them that hate you, and pray for them which despitefully use you, and persecute you."

Here the diffusion, the confusion, and the digression begins.  The Catholic observes certain rites in their tradition, the Baptist others.  The Christian policeman may feel threatened and kill in self defense.  The criminal may use their gains to feed and house the homeless.  Soon the Christian circles back to conclude that it is improper to judge others.  Worldly possessions are unimportant.  Even the poor are 'blessed'.  So economic issues are irrelevant to the individual with respect to salvation; if they are of no concern to God, why should they matter to you?  And if they don't matter to you, why should you care how impoverished anyone else is?  This conundrum explains the range of behavior among Christians.

As I write, I now wonder about the anti-abortion passion of Christians.  Their rhetoric seems to focus on the killing of an infant, perhaps depriving that 'soul' of receiving Christ as a savior.  I don't think it is a concern about the soul of the pregnant mother, or the doctor, who could be thought to be committing a mortal sin (in Catholic theology).  After all, their sins are their own, and God will judge them.  The strife around this issue is ultimately about the boundary between an individuals right to choose and societal duty to protect the defenseless.  Again, if the concern about abortion is protection of the defenseless, it is inconsistent with the drop in concern once the baby born, and a complete absence beyond infancy.

This focus on the individual salvation, the cautioning about judging, the discounting of worldly things, and other features of Christianity in America are reinforced by the rhetoric of the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights.  The resulting ethos is an avoidance of defining life in relation to society.  We are not obligated to each other in any way, save not interfering with another's interpretation of the pursuit of happiness.

Perhaps this is too harsh.  One could argue that we all understand that the boundary between individual freedom and societal interest is the center of debate and conflict.  The process of governing is, of course, all about this boundary.  In other words, it is easily said and readily agreed that individuals should be free to govern themselves.  It is the rest of existence that is difficult and requires our energies, because it is here that there is no consensus and much disagreement.

Now to add the obvious: The United States was founded on the principle and the assurance that there is no state religion.  This indisputable feature allows for citizens of all faiths to participate in government.  If there is no consensus in the domain of Christianity, there is surely less consensus in the domain of Christian, Judaism, Islam, Atheism, Buddhism, and any other religion.

And so, the business of government drops back to “establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity."  Our ongoing debate is the role of government and the limits to fulfilling these ideals.