Trump vs Biden

 The Iowa Caucuses are held today, with results to be published tomorrow or so.  Expectations are that Trump will win handily and that DeSantis and Haley will be distant seconds & thirds.  Most polls expect the November election will be Trump vs Biden, and most polls indicate that most voters would prefer that candidates other than Trump and Biden.  

But there is a case to be made that this matchup is needed.  I can't imagine Trump winning.  He lost by millions of votes and a significant margin in the electoral college.  There is a growing vanguard of conservatives who are dead set against Trump.  He will be convicted in one or more cases against him.  His behavior is increasingly erratic, and only the MAGA base believes Biden is directing his prosecution.  His financial empire in New York is being dismantled, and there is little he can do about it.  Coupled with his history of failed ventures, it will be difficult for anyone other than the MAGA faithful to deny his long streak of losing.  

Strategists will say negative ads work, and Democrats have much more material to use.  Much negative advertising will come out of the mouths of committed Republicans, including candidates running against him in the primaries.  If the documents case results in conviction, there will be some Republicans who will consider Trump unacceptable as a security risk. There will be a major faction of voters for whom the abortion issue is the main factor for voting against Trump.  Negative ads should help persuade Latinos and Blacks to either support Biden or at least not support Trump.  The same should hold, even for Muslims, despite Biden's strong support for Israel.

Voters convinced that Democrats are evil no matter what are not to be persuaded.  But if Biden wins reelection and Democrats win the House, the Senate, or both, there will be a reckoning about Trump's leadership.  

Meditation of Immigration

 A NY Times article today Europe May Be Headed for Something Unthinkable stimulated thoughts about the immigration problem.  I present as a given that human instinct for survival is perhaps the strongest of psychological motivations.  Unless your culture requires you to accept the fate as dictated by your surrounding conditions, people will seek first to survive and then to thrive.  As basic resources diminish and threaten existence, people will move or seek to move.

In the U.S., border policy changes have forced dangerous and often fatal treks across the southern border.  One can only shudder about the immigration challenges as climate change shrinks livable locations on the planet.  

In my utopia, immigration challenges would be actively monitored, something like the monitoring that occurred in the Covid pandemic.  Changes in the 'supply' of immigrants and in the 'capacity to host immigrants' would be tracked.  Ministries of immigration in all countries would meet regularly to discuss actions to address the dynamics.  The reality of immigration and emigration pressures would be acknowledged and addressed in the context of the rest of the political and sociological considerations.  Rather like the climate change crisis, immigration would be recognized as a global issue needing analysis and action everywhere.  

Thinking somewhat locally on the immigration crisis at the U.S. southern border, we observe millions of refugees and other displaced people seeking asylum in the U.S.  Most who are fleeing for their safety or for wont of a means of support are willing to abandon the home of their birthplace, relatives, and their culture to have even a chance to survive.  If given the choice, many would be happy to join others of their kind wherever they are in the U.S., but many others would be happy to assimilate into a culture that asks nothing of them except a willingness to work and to respect the rights of others.  

Like many other crises, immigration is an issue of distribution of limited resources.  The pressure on global resources will be high no matter how immigration is handled in any particular area, but the risks of war will depend on whether immigration is treated as a shared problem or a problem for others to solve.